Microsoft’s New Operating Strategy (OS) Mindset: From Innovator Exclusivity to Generic Convertibility to Indian Ubiquity!

There are no two opinions that the phenomenal growth of Apple led iOS and iOS devices and Google led Android OS and Android devices have dealt a significant blow to the dominance of Windows as a once-monopoly operating system, and also started raising questions on the rigid coupling between computing devices and Windows software. This challenge to Windows and Microsoft hegemony has not been helped by Microsoft’s inadequate response to the mobile smartphone revolution in terms of delayed development of Windows (or any other OS) for mobile devices. Microsoft’s exclusive tie-up with Lumia for dedicated Windows based phones and the subsequent acquisition of Lumia mobile devices business have not helped in any dramatic manner either (as yet).

There are always critiques who try to predict the end-of-the-road for monopoly technologies and inflexible business strategies which have been slow to recognize the changing ecosystem. Such firms, instead of changing their strategies and products (or services) to cater to the new ecosystem, try to defend the established business models and product offerings but eventually fail to stem the tide. As version after version of Windows is developed and as the new Microsoft devices (whether the Lumia smartphones or Surface tablets) continue the attempts to make it big, the question is whether Microsoft is immune to the risk of business model decadence. The question assumes even greater significance as the latest version of Windows OS, Windows10, is getting ready to be launched.

The new Microsoft

Ever since Satya Nadella has taken charge a little over a year ago as the new CEO of Microsoft, there has been a palpable change in Microsoft strategies. Some of these relate to announcing of unlimited free cloud storage on Office 365, development of connectivity between Dropbox (a Google product) and Office 365, and offering of more effective and productive Office Apps for Apple’s iPhone and iPad. Azure, the cloud based software has been set for continuous development while Skype and other apps are also actively developed for all devices. The new Microsoft under Nadella has started recognizing its major competitors as likely unintended partners in its new quest for device-agnostic software acceptance. Clearly, in the new strategy, higher pricey software sales has become less important than more open acceptance of its once highly proprietary software.

Microsoft’s devices and tablets business has also been doing better, with the smartphone business focusing on the low price endpoints with multiple Lumia smartphones and the tablet business focusing on high end Surface tablets. Microsoft is also trying to broaden its appeal to youngsters and gaming addicts and virtual reality fans who may not care about Windows and Office at their stage of life. Building on its organic success of Xbox, Microsoft has moved inorganically too with the purchase of HoloLens and Minecraft with an eye on the future. HoloLens is the futuristic 3D holographic virtual reality headset, compatible with all systems. Minecraft is more than a game; it is a cross-platform community with a huge cloud component.  In addition, despite the virtual failure of Windows Vista and lukewarm success of Windows 8, the new Microsoft has not drawn back from launching its most audacious software development ever, Windows 10!      

Windows 10

If Microsoft is to be believed, Windows 10 is more than just a major software upgrade; it is a transformative operating system for Microsoft. Technology magazines are agog with 10 top features of Windows 10 that are announced (and another 10 top features not announced!). From all this promotional material, one can identify certain unique characteristics of Windows 10.  Primarily, it is cloud-centric, pan-device and cross-platform. It is touch (new Start menu) and speech sensitive (improved Cortana), with an inbuilt ability to adjust itself to different types of devices (Continuum); from smartphones to desktops and 2 inch screens to 84 inch screens. New browser (Spartan), new Outlook and new Xbox applications are also proposed. Commercially, with these features and more, Windows 10 is proposed to be offered free, at least for Windows recent version users and for the first year to start with.

More than all these features, the attempt by Microsoft to convert phones operating on Android system to a version of Windows (in association with one device manufacturer, initially) is an interesting play. Potentially, this may be extended to iOS. While it is too early to comment on what IP and patent related issues, this is a bold new stride; from offering Windows Apps like Office and OneDrive to Android and iPhones to convert alien operating systems into Windows own. Whether the convertibility option is superior to encouraging device makers to offer Windows based phones is for the future to judge but in the realms of contemporary business play the convertibility strategy is certainly a novel option. This is not without its risks, however, there is no guarantee that it can fit all devices smoothly and seamlessly, and also that the costs and experience will be any better. Apple and Android may not plan a counter-strategy given the low share of Windows OS devices but the risk would still remain.

Convertibility strategy

The convertibility strategy has probably some similarities to the strategies adopted by retailers of multi-brand and own brand franchising. It has also some parallels in after-sale service. In manufacturing and products, broadly speaking, there is no history of convertibility option as proposed for Windows. It could be outlandish and over-expensive even to think of it in such domains; like one automobile maker retrofitting its “superior” engine in another competitor’s automobile! The larger issue here, probably, is the attempt to draw users to a larger unified ecosystem. Whether it should be done through the way Microsoft now proposes or through the integrated elegance route of iOS and iOS devices as Apple has always done is a moot point at this stage. Microsoft has little to lose but a lot to gain by the convertibility strategy.

That said, as the importance of operating systems in products grows, the possibility of convertibility strategy could increase. As automobiles become driverless and self-navigated, Microsoft, Apple and Google could be the three players pitted against each other to control the new generation automobile development. The success that may be scored by Microsoft in the Windows 10 conversion strategy may hold some pointers to future successes in other more challenging arenas. One may think of home appliances, audio and video equipment, and remote home management systems as potential areas for the convertibility strategy. The convertibility strategy may bring to the fore once again the risks and benefits of open source versus proprietary operating system development and the defences against portability without restraints.

Competitor as customer

At a more philosophical plane, the unravelling Microsoft strategies bring forth the concept of ‘competitors as customers’. The advantages of the philosophy are that it provides economies of scope for key functions such as R&D and manufacturing, and also helps in the development of hybrid components and systems that integrate the superior systems of competitors. While firms may be initially dismissive of this concept, there is no reason why this cannot be a viable concept at least in the maturity and decline phases of the industry players. As an example, the two truck makers of India who are battling out for decades with independent designs from bolts to drivetrains but with little change in the market share over the long decades may opt for internal convertibility to bring down costs dramatically.

Domestic airlines, which are in the fragmented and declining phase, could also benefit a lot by making planes, aircraft maintenance and ground services portable across the carriers. Rather than drive down fares to completely unviable levels to boost capacity utilization of individual planes and routes of carriers, the carriers can operate at viable fare levels and have infrastructure portability to serve the customers better. While excessive collaboration amongst competitors may raise cartelisation fears, oversight by regulatory bodies and metrics of customer satisfaction could be certain moderating factors. In fact, there could be a counter-hypothesis as to whether competition without tangible differentiation is not worse than a monopoly with robust product specifications and service characteristics.

Indian ubiquity

While examining the Microsoft convertibility strategy, one may marvel at how India offers a fascinating spectrum of commonplace convertibility or portability; call it Jugad or otherwise. We have a mobile micro-sim card being precision-cut with scissors to convert it into a nano-sim card for the new generation phones! You may find a Maruti car spare part being customized for a Hyundai small car in a workshop specializing in the service of Toyota cars!!  More (intellectual) options could come up in the Indian context, in future. Indian higher education system is famous for certain overarching brands; Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Management, Indian Institute of Information Technology, Indian Institute of Science Research and Education, for example. While the admission to each Institute is governed by a specific common entrance test, once admitted in a particular location-specific institute the student would have to stay with that institute all through. There could be convertibility options across locations and branches under each overarching brand, something which a Harvard and Stanford can never hope to achieve as they try zealously to defend their distinctive identities!!!

Lighter vein discussions apart, the current and likely commonplace examples of India suggest the great Indian intellectual ubiquity; an openness to accept any proposition, an enthusiasm to deliver on anything and a willingness to fit into any culture. This ubiquity, if channeled in intellectually constructive modes focused on technology, quality and compliance, could deliver from and for India a host of Microsoft Windows 10 like or even superior convertibility options. This is because, the operating system convertibility is not a software challenge; it is a strategic mindset shift (it is a moot point if Satya Nadella being an Indian has helped in this new flexibility at Microsoft). If Windows convertibility is viewed as a mere software issue, we have already many App developers who straddle multiple platforms and devices, the latest being Star India’s mobile application, Hotstar, which achieved 10 million downloads in just 40 days, and is claimed to be capable of running on as many as 7,000 variations of operating systems and screen sizes. What matters is the strategic mindset that enables a firm develop a universal and standardized ecosystem for the customer that promises to the customer a true hassle-free convertibility and portability of low-cost and high-value user experience.

Posted by Dr CB Rao on March 22, 2015

Nokia’s Lumia: Microsoft’s Visible Surface or Invisible Fascia?

The last few months have been momentous for Microsoft. An acknowledged leader in software with annual revenues of USD 79 billion and market capitalization of USD 235 billion, Microsoft is a formidable player in the global technology space, notwithstanding the emergence of new Internet technologies and new players, and the changing business models. There have been two momentous decisions the corporation has made over the last two months. Firstly, the corporation has decided to transform itself from a software DNA to a devices and services play. Secondly, it has made its most ambitious acquisition yet of acquiring Nokia’s mobile business including all of its design, manufacturing and sales organization, along with long term 10 year licenses to Nokia’s patents, maps and the Nokia brand itself.  The author has analyzed the Microsoft-Nokia deal from a strategic perspective, and has found it to be a win-win for all, as declared by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. Interested readers may see the blog post titled “Connecting with Nokia: Microsoft’s Timely Idea?” in Strategy Musings, September 9, 2013 (http://cbrao2008.blogspot.in/2013/09/connecting-with-nokia-microsofts-timely_9.html).

The above referred blog post analyzed the acquisition from a strategic and business perspective that could be interesting for students of management and strategy. Typically, strategies and businesses are built around products and technologies. In this context, it would be appropriate to take forward the analysis of the previous blog post in terms of product and technology management in a rapidly evolving industry. Such analysis is bound to throw up valuable insights into how the new Microsoft could be stacking itself up in the devices and services space, and what could be the challenges and opportunities for the acquiring Microsoft and the acquired Nokia division. The analysis could also throw light on the options available for other troubled software and hardware behemoths and embattled handset makers. That the acquisition is taking place at a time when the barriers for entry into the handheld mobile phone industry have sharply fallen makes the analysis even more interesting and relevant.

Microsoft product divisions

Microsoft has indeed evolved from the business model of providing only operating system software to personal computers to four other areas. Microsoft’s  current five divisions are windows, servers & tools, online services, business, and entertainment & devices. These five divisions account for approximately 22, 28, 4, 35 and 10 percent of the total annual revenues, trending from the Q4, 2013 data. Of these five divisions, three are profitable (Windows at 25, Servers and Tools at 42 and Business at 68 percent of divisional revenues) while two are loss making (online services at 50 and Entertainment and Devices at 5 percent of divisional revenues), again trending from Q4 results. These, however, are not watertight product or service divisions, and except the entertainment division, the other divisions are interrelated to personal computing software. To understand Microsoft’s perspectives on these divisions, it would be best to consider extracts from Microsoft’s official website as below.

Windows Division develops and markets operating systems for computing devices, related software and online services, Surface RT and Pro devices, and PC accessories. This collection of software, hardware, and services is designed to empower individuals, companies, and organizations and to simplify everyday tasks through seamless operations across the user’s hardware and software. The general availability of Surface RT and Windows 8 started October 26, 2012. The general availability of Surface Pro started on February 9, 2013.

Server and Tools Division develops and markets technology and related services that enable information technology professionals and their systems to be more productive and efficient. Server and Tools product and service offerings include Windows Server, Microsoft SQL Server, Windows Azure, Visual Studio, System Center products, Windows Embedded device platforms, and Enterprise Services. Enterprise Services comprise Premier product support services and Microsoft Consulting Services. Microsoft also offers developer tools, training, and certification.

Microsoft Business Division (“MBD”) develops and markets software and online services designed to increase personal, team, and organization productivity. MBD offerings include the Microsoft Office system (“Office,” comprising mainly the core Office product set, Office 365, SharePoint, Exchange, and Lync), which generates over 90% of MBD revenue, and Microsoft Dynamics business solutions. The general availability of the new Office started on January 29, 2013.

Online Services Division (“OSD”) develops and markets information and content designed to help people simplify tasks and make more informed decisions online, and help advertisers connect with audiences. OSD offerings include Bing, Bing Ads, and MSN. Bing and MSN generate revenue through the sale of search and display advertising, accounting for nearly all of OSD’s revenue.

Entertainment and Devices Division (“EDD”) develops and markets products and services designed to entertain and connect people. EDD offerings include the Xbox entertainment platform (which includes the Xbox 360 gaming and entertainment console, Kinect for Xbox 360, Xbox 360 video games, Xbox LIVE, and Xbox 360 accessories), Skype, and Windows Phone, including related patent licensing revenue. Microsoft acquired Skype on October 13, 2011.

The above does indicate that Microsoft has been seeking to diversify its offerings and be in step with, though not step ahead of, times. The acquisition of Hot Mail and Skype platforms as well as development of Azure cloud and the launch of Xbox gaming consoles were some success stories. However, the best what Microsoft could marshal was not good enough for the corporation to be on top of the dramatic changes in computer and connectivity technologies and the immensely growing popularity of tablet and mobile products.

Scratching the surface

The first sign that Microsoft took the tablet revolution seriously, though belatedly, came when the company launched innovative looking Surface tablet in RT version in October 2012 and in Pro version in February 2013. Surface, on paper, had additional ports, micro SD card and USB drive. It had also a sleek magnetic cover which doubles as a QUERTY keyboard and a capacitive touch screen on which a pen could be used. In addition, unlike iPad, it could provide an ability to utilize a complete Office suite. It appeared as though Microsoft found a niche in tablet computers with Surface that could do content creation as opposed to iPad which was primarily developed for content viewing. That was because Surface as mentioned above had additional functionalities which would enable a more compatible notebook performance.

Sales of the two sleek Surface models have anything been but tepid, with Microsoft having to take a USD 900 million inventory adjustment charge in the last quarter. The reasons lie in the complexity of Surface. Market favored the simplicity of iPad while the gap between content creation and content viewing was bridged by accessories and applications for iPad.  The high price set by Microsoft for Surface reflected Porter’s classic entry deterrent price level for a new player seeking a foothold in a hotly competed tablet computer industry. What was a clear USP in terms of keyboard magnetic flap was elusive, coming as it does with additional price. The other reason for lackluster performance of Surface, probably, was a lack of emotional connectivity of consumers with Microsoft as a device maker.  Microsoft is reportedly working on a successor model of Surface but whether and how it would make a different mark remains to be seen.

Mobile phone pecking orders

Given that Surface could not even scratch the surface, in a manner of speaking, in the battle of the tablets Microsoft had to go back to the drawing board particularly in the context of the publicly declared objective of becoming a devices and services company. The indications that the inroads made by Xbox One in the gaming console business are getting finally halted or even rolled back by Sony’s PS4 in the battle of the eighth-generation gaming consoles (again due to a typically Microsoft desire to aim high-end with price premium), Microsoft really has been facing a real strategic challenge in quest of viable and dominant devices business objective. The recent acquisition of Nokia’s mobile handset business with its products and people (along with a 10 year licensing of Nokia brand, patents and maps) for USD 7.2 billion, in the context, emerges as a timely strategy to redouble the devices effort.

Nokia’s mobile handset business achieved a turnover of USD 15 billion in 2012, with a physical sales of 336 million units, of which 35 million units were smartphones, with market shares of 19.3 percent in total mobile sales and 4.9 percent in smart-phones worldwide (for Nokia, smartphones were just 10.4 percent of its total sales). Samsung has been the market leader in mobile phones with an estimated turnover of USD 20 billion in 2012, with a physical sales of 406 million units, of which 236 million units were smartphones with market shares of  23.4 percent in total mobile phone sales, and 30.3 percent in smartphones worldwide (for Samsung, smartphones were 57.7 percent of its total sales). Apple, the original smartphone pioneer and leader is the second dominant player with a turnover of USD 15 billion in 2012, with a physical sales of 136 million units, of which all the 136 million units were smartphones, with market shares of 7.8 percent in total mobile phones and 19.1 percent in smartphones worldwide (for Apple, smartphones were 100 percent of its total sales). Worldwide, total mobile sales were 1736 million units, of which smartphones were 713 million units (41.1 percent to total).

Excluding Samsung, Apple and Nokia all other phone manufacturers (including but not limited to such names as ZTE, HTC, LG, BlackBerry and Sony) sold 858 mobile phones worldwide, of which 326 million were smartphones, with market shares of 49.5 percent in total mobile phones and 54.3 percent in smartphones (for other manufacturers, smartphones were 45.1 percent of total mobile phones). In terms of operating systems, of the 713 million units of smartphones sold, Android led the pack with approximately 70 percent share, followed by iOS at 21 percent, BlackBerry at 3.5 percent, Microsoft Windows at 3 percent and all others at 3 percent in 2012. All these statistics point to the enormous challenge as well as opportunity that Nokia has under Microsoft ownership. The challenge is one of uphill battle in terms of operating system share and overall market order. The opportunity is one of being able to maintain and enhance the overall Nokia share in feature phones, and increasing the share in smartphones several times over, to the levels of Apple and Samsung, as an aspiration.  

Beyond classic theories 

The answer to this lies in likely environmental trends and competitiveness of smartphones (which did not exist a few years ago but have taken center stage now).  Would the ratio of smartphones to basic phones which has reached an almost equal share increase even higher, to say 75 percent, in favor of smartphones? Or, will all mobile phones will only be smartphones in one scenario and new range of feature phones with simpler operating systems revive the feature phones in another scenario? Will Microsoft-Nokia follow these trends or shape these trends? Will, in an anxiety to push up the Windows operating system, Microsoft ignore the still formidable franchise that Nokia has in feature phones and cause its decline, with or without a commensurate increase in smartphone sales? Would Microsoft be better off making Windows OS as its proprietary OS for its Nokia/Lumia phones, much as Apple iOS is for iPhones? On the other hand, in an increasingly commoditizing smartphone technology market, what would be the differentiating feature of Windows OS?   

Students and practitioners of strategy have, therefore, an excellent case study coming up in the Microsoft-Nokia deal. The technological and competitive dynamics of the computing and communications industries are so multifaceted that no single management paradigm, be it competitive strategy, core competence, lean or reengineering alone can provide a solution. However, all of these need to be collectively applied by Microsoft to achieve cost leadership, product differentiation and mass customization on the strength of current and additional core competencies.  On the face of it, Microsoft brings a world-class operating system and considerable finances while Nokia brings world-class hardware and worldwide marketing. The combination should have every chance of success. The only hurdle to the achievement could be any misjudgment on the part of Microsoft on the future evolution of industry and competition. The misjudgment could arise from an unwillingness to understand the necessity of addressing the full market spectrum in terms of multiple products and value points, a strategy already undertaken by Nokia in recent times. Appropriate judgment will reinforce and expand this process.

Industry evolution

Porter’s theory of competitive strategy considers industry evolution and the definition of industry to operate in, and the definition of industry boundaries. The computer and connectivity industries are undergoing a tremendous industry evolution. Hitherto, personal computers were the target of cannibalization by tablets.  According to IDC, the device industry research firm, phablets, which are smartphones with larger screens, will start to cannibalize into the market share of tablets over the next 12-18 months. Generally, phablets are smartphones with screen size that ranges from 5-8 inches and are designed to combine the functions of a phone and tablet. IDC expects a new round of device cannibalization to kick in, but this time with large-screen (5-plus inch) smartphones beginning to impact the smaller (7-8 inch) tablet market. Also, cost will continue to be a key parameter. IDC expects lower-cost devices will drive global interest and aid in increasing uptake among first-time buyers in commercial sectors like education. That said, the overall device industry would continue to offer great potential for Microsoft, in terms of both operating systems and a range of products, with the twin strategy being possible with the Nokia device technology with IP and organizational strengths (engineering, manufacturing and marketing) now acquired.  

According to IDC projections, globally, smart connected devices -- PCs, tablets and smartphones -- will continue to surge with overall shipments surpassing 2 billion units by the end of 2015 with a market value of USD 735.1 billion. Shipments of desktop PCs are expected to touch 134.4 million units by 2013 and 123.11 million by 2017, while, that of portable PCs are expected at 180.9 million units by 2013 and 196.6 million by 2017. In the case of tablets, shipments are projected to touch 227.3 million units by 2013 and 406.8 million by 2017. Smartphone shipments are expected to touch 1,013.2 million units by 2013 and 1,733.9 million by 2017 (double the current level in just four years!). In terms of device mix, total PC shipments accounted for 28.7% of the smart connected device market in 2012 while tablets accounted for 11.8% and smartphones for 59.5%. By 2017, total PCs are expected to drop to 13%, while tablets and smartphones will contribute 16.5 % and 70.5%, respectively to the overall market. The shift in demand from the more expensive PC category to more reasonably priced smartphones and tablets will drive the average selling price (ASP) for the collective market from USD 462 in 2012 to USD 323 in 2017.

Visible surface; invisible fascia

In the communication and computer industries, the product is the visible surface. Without any pun, Microsoft thought, for good reasons, that its Surface tablet computer would lead the visible product revolution in the device strategy. Despite the setback, a new generation of Surface may still click. That said, Microsoft should fight against the temptation of using Lumia as just another Surface, that is just as a premium product. Lumia range could be highly visible products but their contribution to Microsoft has the potential to be internal and expansive, in terms of device engineering, technology and hardware. Rather than being a mere skin or surface of the device strategy, Lumia could be the fascia of a new Microsoft, both in terms of corporate anatomy and corporate visibility. Anatomically, fascia is the thin fibrous tissue under the skin that covers and ties the muscles together. Technologically, it also signifies the dashboard of a motor vehicle which provides an interactive platform that connects the motor vehicle with the external world. The fascia analogy perfectly fits Nokia/Lumia in/for Microsoft; it presents itself as a unique techno-marketing opportunity for Microsoft. The reasons lie in the likely dramatic evolution of the computer, tablet and smart-phone industries as discussed above.

The strategic opportunities for Microsoft lie in leveraging the acquired Nokia/Lumia technological capabilities to develop a full range of basic and feature phones, smartphones, phablets and tablets, with screen sizes from 2 to 10 inches. This should be accompanied by reinforcement of high-end and low-end manufacturing strengths, deploying premium manufacturing and low cost manufacturing simultaneously. It should be a grand expansive strategy, rather than an incremental niche strategy. A matching organizational strategy that reinforces and builds upon Nokia’s proven global distribution, sales and marketing strategies, rather than reformats them in a Microsoft format, would also be called for. Microsoft, clearly, has no time or need to rediscover the wheel, and worse still discover in an expensive manner a wrong wheel after considerable effort, time and cost! And in this nimble and agile expansive strategy, Nokia Lumia would be both the visible and invisible fascia.  India, as a country of low cost mobile phone development and manufacturing for Nokia India would offer great opportunities for driving Microsoft’s new device and services strategy, increasing Microsoft revenues manifold in the process.

Posted by Dr CB Rao on September 15, 2013     

 

 

From Type to Touch: For the Text, What’s Next?

Human civilization has seen centuries of evolution and development as an increasingly knowledge society, solely on the basis of oral and written communication. The myriad languages of the human race have been the vehicles of division as well as integration of societies. While oral communication has always been through a complex interaction of the brain, tongue and the mouth, the written communication has seen transformational changes as the human race and technologies developed. In India, Vedas, slokas, epics and poems which were captured on the palm leaves in the ancient root language Sanskrit (as well as in the other Indian languages) are a compelling evidence of the human’s unceasing quest to develop, race to develop, communicate and archive knowledge for the present and the future.

While oral expression has been a natural endowment, written expression has been a manmade competitive advantage. Writing materials have played a very prominent role in the development of diverse cultures. They have helped not only in preserving the history and culture of mankind, but have also deeply influenced the scripts, languages as well as man's mode of thinking. To understand ancient writing materials, therefore, is to understand ancient cultures in a better light. Societies which preserved knowledge, like the Western world, progressed while societies which were indifferent to preservation, like India, lost several treasures of knowledge. India has seen writing forms evolve over  several centuries using virtually every form of materials, from palm leaves to copper plates and stone slabs to modern paper; but so much more of ancient wisdom, it is felt, has not been captured at all. And, of whatever that has been written down a lot has been lost in history too.

Shift and Change

 Ever since the advent of computer, the domains of writing, publishing and dissemination have seen nothing short of a revolutionary transformation. From the initial binary punching to later day language typing, computer has seen a step function jump in processing power. From being a data processing machine, computer has become the backbone of new age information technology. Development of various computer languages to converse with the computer has customized computers to multiple uses.  Software capabilities and hardware power evolved in tandem to be able to electronically capture, manage, store, transmit and retrieve data, information and knowledge in standalone and networked computers as well as global servers and grids. Whatever the historical lapses in writing and preservation of information in the ancient India, it is a just irony that India is now in the forefront of writing the code for all the computer languages. There are, however, two facets to the language and communication paradigm of the computers; the visible and the invisible.

The visible language is user-friendly while the invisible language is programmer-challenging. The greater the user friendliness that is targeted, the greater is the programming challenge. With the growth of the Internet and instant patching and updating the challenge of keeping the invisible language current and contemporary has been increasing.  The invisible language itself has two parts, the programming language and the machine language. While major enhancements have been happening on the programming language front, the machine language remains binary. The relative exclusivity of popular operating systems (4 for computers and 4 for smart phones) vis-à-vis the proliferation of devices (several hundreds) indicates the complexities and challenges of developing an operating system that is truly multi-functional and robust.  Underlying the complexity is the need to write millions and billions of coding lines to support such user functionalities.

Touch and Write

The first improvement to user friendliness came with the incorporation of drop-down boxes and tool bars to guide the user and let the user select from the available options. This development still had to be accompanied by typing of options. The breakthrough, however, came through Apple bringing touch-select as the next level of user experience. The touch experience is intimately tied with the scrolling capability. Despite the dominance of touch in smart phones, touch navigation could pose a challenge in full fledged computing devices given the significantly additional number of operations to be performed. While an Office suite would cater to the detailed navigation, the fact would remain that touch would still be an immediate experience rather than a type-along experience for the user. Microsoft has recently launched Windows 8 as the ’touch and navigate’ platform applicable across all the devices, from phones and tablets to laptops and desktops. Whether text management can now be integrated with touch management is the next frontier for Microsoft to explore and conquer.

For thousands of years, writing has been the hallmark of human civilization. Writing brings out certain faculties of hand and brain coordination, in terms of control and memory as opposed to typing which, though bringing out a different type of hand and brain coordination, admittedly mechanizes the writing faculty. After the initial failure of initial handwriting recognition that was applied on the original Microsoft tablet computer in the early 2000s, the importance of writing on the computers has taken a distant second position. The more recent revival of pen stylus based devices, more especially Samsung Galaxy Note devices, gives hope that handwriting would reemerge and remain as the most intelligent and intellectual form of providing inputs. This would require a new level of integration between software and hardware technologies with superior capabilities for highly variable handwriting between people. However, that certainly is the way to go as the pen stylus brings the added advantage of free hand sketching, drawing and annotations as well as track changes.

See and Speak

Recognition and cognitive technologies would continue to be developed to the extent that look and talk would be the new input channels. The focusing of eyes would soon determine which icon (in the Apple language) or tile (in the Windows language) is desired to be opened by the user. Eventually, even sub-instructions may be tracked and selected with eye contact. The first evidence of the feasibility is already seen in certain devices and software solutions, from recognition of start and stop commands based on eyesight to adjustments to ambient conditions. In devices of the future, there may not be a need to have a dedicated camera key; a mere blink after focusing could snap the photo. Future cameras may detect the natural power of eyes and accordingly adjust their own aperture and focusing settings.

Cognitive technologies have seen a boost with the voice commands in the navigation systems and the more recent Apple Siri and Galay S voice in the mobile devices. These, however, are limited by the preprogramming potential. Open ended speech based input technologies have not so far realized the potential such technologies could hold. Cognitive technologies have speech recognition as the primary platform.  The potential has not been realized mainly because of the phonetic and pronunciation variations across people. Self-learning programs are the answer. Future speech recognition software solutions would reprogram themselves based on an initial cycle whereby a person inputs his or her speaking patterns and profiles. Such technologies would also add an extra layer of security to the computer system by uniquely recognizing the speaking patterns.

Think and Imagine

Probably, the net giant leap would be when the devices start recognizing the thought processes. As the mapping of brain, deciphering of brain waves and decoding of fired up neurons gain traction, potentially  each thought may be identified with a unique fingerprint. The thought rather than the person or the device could be the unique factor that could be standard across any person-device combination. This would require the devices to have powerful electromagnetic sensors that can recognize unique thought waves that correspond to the commands a person desires to give to the device. As with any new endeavor, the thought recognition technologies may be introduced with simple commands and later extended to the whole gamut of human thoughts.

The ultimate frontier could be to imagine the human intents and desires from out of the myriad overt recognizable actions and thoughts. This development would be quite the opposite of the previous hypothesis of universally standardized thought wave technologies. The ability to imagine would be achieved when a device is uniquely synchronized and intertwined with the owner cum user of the device. The device would have an enormous storage ability and analytical power to capture each and every unique thought, command and action to develop a full portfolio of how the user would behave. As the experience and expertise of the device grows, so would its ability to simulate its user’s thinking and imagining for the user and outlining a whole range of options as if the owner himself or herself would be imagining.

Design beyond Device

If the foregoing were to come true, and the author of this blog post believes would come true sooner than later, the devices would no longer me hand operated apparatuses anymore. They would be vested with increasingly higher levels of human faculties. The advertisement by Samsung for its latest mobile phone, Galaxy SIII, claims that it is “designed for humans”. Based on the foregoing discussion, the advertisement for future devices could well read as “designed as humans”, with each device being as uniquely personalized and intelligent as each human being uniquely is .

Posted by Dr CB Rao on December 25, 2012