The desktop personal computer has seen its
greatest challenge with the emergence of laptop personal computer. Laptop has
seen its greatest threat with the emergence of tablets. Smart phones and
phablets are yet another favored range of mobile devices for communication,
becoming more powerful even in certain business applications progressively. The
question people and experts alike have is whether the last word has been said,
or is about to be said, on personal computers and laptops. Would they be soon
extinct or irrelevant is the question. As of now, tablets have become
ubiquitous because of their portability and simplicity; yet they seem more
suited to media and milder documentation. Its inability to take a standard USB
port for seamless data transfer across all devices is an impediment to tablets
completely overshadowing personal computers and laptops. Microsoft has made the first move towards
making tablets more powerful, and hence more universal, with the launch of
Surface Pro 3 which overcomes some of the shortcomings of typical tablets.
Doubtless, computer engineers would continue on
their quest to make tablet computer the only personal computer of the future. In
so far as business applications are concerned, tablets have, as of now, become
supplemental devices rather than substitute devices. The future direction would
depend on six principal factors: the weight factor, form factor, power factor, system
factor, memory factor and portability factor. Other factors such as aesthetics,
display intensity, water and dust resistance, color combinations are likely to
be relevant but only of secondary importance compared to the primary factors.
If the technological power that is getting packed in a smart phone is an
indication, it would be theoretically possible for a tablet to pack all the
power of a current desktop or laptop in a not too distant future. This does not
mean that that desktops and laptops would be extinct. As with every other
product, from camera to movie, whereby the older products have staged decisive
comebacks on the back of new technological developments so could be the
desktops and laptops. This blog post discusses the potential direction and
options, and choices of the communication and computing industry, and the
possible impact of human race.
Proportionality
If technological development is secular, as
usually it is, the principle of proportionality works to keep most products
relevant, provided they are duly updated technologically from time to time. It
was thought once that with the advent of televisions, home theater systems, and
more recently, home cinema systems, the movie halls would become orphaned. On
the other hand, leveraging the wide format, 70 mm and IMAX screens, hi-fidelity
surround music systems and digital streaming of movies, movie halls continue to
hold sway with films of more epic proportions getting made. Similarly, even
though camera features have got ported into smart phones, the main line cameras
remain the choice for everlasting perfect photos with the lens, aperture and
zoom options and high pixel densities. By the same token, if the tablets of
tomorrow would pack all the capabilities of a desktop or laptop, there is no
reason why the desktop pr laptop would not pack all the capabilities of a
mini-mainframe or the mainframe itself.
Today, a CPU clock speed of 2.8 GHz, a RAM of
3 GB and an extendable memory of 128 GB is standard for a top-of-the-line
phablet; these specifications being the mainstay of a laptop until recently.
The future laptops would surely have processing clock speeds in excess of 4GHz,
SDDR 4 RAMS of 16 GB and memory capability of 2 terabytes. While portability of
mobile computers together with laptop like features could make them
anywhere-business choices, the proportionate increase in the power of the
laptops and desktops would create a new pool of fixed computer-centric
intellectual entrepreneurs. In not so distant future, the mainframe capability
would sit in the home computers making it easy for individuals to carry out
complex tasks such as mathematical modeling, business simulation and high speed
algorithmic stock trading. This wave would be akin to Apple’s Mac bringing
desktop publishing and animation within the reach of aspiring self-employed
entrepreneurs. If the principle of proportionality with universal technological
development is applied there would be paradigm shifts in how computing and
communication could create intellectual and employment opportunities.
Duality
The personal computing product design is at
crossroads. The trend of packing more features and power and hoping to make
devices completely universal has limitations. Some such limitations are
hardware related aspects such as capacity and bandwidth which are in turn
limited by energy generation and heat dissipation issues. Some others are
operating system related issues such as one system being inadequate to meet the
extremes of business (or professional) and social (or personal) demands. Keeping
business and personal needs in one device but distinct is more complex than
either offering dual-SIM technologies or pan-device operating systems. A
completely different way of looking at product design is probably called
for. Cloud offers an intermediate
solution making weak devices strong by on-demand use of cloud power and storage.
This would certainly help to the fullest extent when the entire globe is
seamlessly wifi connected. That could be an elusive dream for a long time,
making cloud a selective option.
Fortunately, the relentless progress of technology, in terms of
materials, chips and machining or forming, offers new vistas of product
development.
There was a time when a computer, even a
laptop, was one inch in thickness and a tablet half an inch in thickness, with
corresponding high weights. Today, both have halved in thicknesses with
corresponding reductions in weight. It is not difficult to imagine a future
when the mobile computers would be virtually
paper-thin, in a manner of speaking (probably, another halving of
thicknesses is technically feasible!). this would open up the opportunity to
have a common chassis, with business device on one side and social device on
the other side, together the combination phone not exceeding a 6 mm thickness
and a 200 gm weight! If this is coupled with other exciting options like
extendable screens for laptop-like readability there would be a universal
device that caters to diverse business and social needs through different
devices but as one innovative chassis-integrated device. In a corresponding
manner, laptops could also be conjoined dual devices with the top being a
business device and the base being a social device. This also needs to be
combined with customized operating systems for business and social applications
while ensuring certain commonality in both systems for shared applications.
Wearability
Hitherto, the technological approach to merge
electronics and human endeavor has been to create robots. The early approach
has been to create robots that could mimic the human in mechanical movements
and perform operations that are difficult, and even impossible, and unsafe for
humans. The more recent approach has been to embed artificial intelligence in
robots so that they can even think and act. This has, however, been an
enormously challenging task with high cost and time lines. Even if it becomes
progressively feasible, such robots or humanoids would be niche, customized
products rather than mass, universal products. The concept of wearable
computers offers a dramatically different approach to making humans more
intelligent, nimble, flexible, efficient and effective. This dramatic
development of wearable computers is being led for the moment by Google Glass
and, in a more basic sense, by Smart Watches. The potential is far greater than
that indicated by such smart glasses and watches.
At a very simple conceptual plane, let us
imagine what dramatic transformation would occur if artificial intelligence is
embedded in a human being instead of in a mechatronic device like robot.
Granting that embedding may not be possible biologically, artificial
intelligence can surely be used to supplement native intelligence of a human
being. Textiles which adjust to different levels of warmth and chillness, chips
that can monitor the functioning of vital organs on a real time, smart phones
which analyze speech and agility patterns to warn of impending strokes, emotion
moderating bands, gloves that enhance grip, memory banks to fight Alzheimer’s disease,
headbands to migraine, brain defibrillators and emotional rejuvenators, ….. the
list could be endless! In fact, every
organ of the human body, both external and internal, could be rendered more
effective and less disease prone by wearable computers. And, as an ultimate
transformation, Google itself may be bionically implanted and web search may be
thought search of a bionic Google!
cDNA
The human race, as we know, is governed by
genetics. Each human being has a unique genetic code, the DNA. With the
computer assuming a ubiquitous and all-encompassing role in life, and if the
future of communication and computing industry develops as discussed in this
blog post, each human being would have a supplemental DNA, which would be the computer
DNA (or the cDNA). The future of communication and computing industry, if it
evolves as per the theorems of proportionality, duality and wearability as
discussed herein, would certainly promote a genetic reinforcement which
overcomes the weaknesses of, and adds to the strengths of, biological genetics.
Each person, by the choice of his computers for his professional and social
lives, would have the ability to choose his or her cDNA even if he or she is
not destined to choose his or her biological DNA. Correspondingly, the biological
human abilities in future may move from intrinsic innovation to extrinsic
adaptation, and from native survival and competitive instincts to chosen life
design strategies. For those who can foresee the future of communication and
computing industry as discussed in this blog post, the future would be full of
endless and exciting possibilities!
Posted by Dr CB Rao on July 20, 2014
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